Steve Jobs' intransigence still haunts Apple users: "Flash Player … is not available for your device" is one of the most frustrating messages on the web, often standing between users and the video content they want to watch.

Jobs had his reasons, famously described in an open letter, where he explained why iPhones, iPads and iPods would not support Flash. The letter claimed fear of dependency on a proprietary system, the unsuitability for touch-screen devices and other technical concerns: native applications developed especially for an operating system will always tend to look sleeker and work more efficiently than applications running over an intermediary browser or the Flash environment.

Strategically, lack of Flash support has strengthened the option to develop applications directly for the iOS operating system, giving Apple a share of revenues and a higher level of control over content on its platform.

For content providers, the drawback was the nuisance of developing and maintaining a service for a handful of devices - but having sold more than 200 million iOS devices to date, Apple's addressable market is nothing to be ashamed of.

Therefore, Adobe's decision to move to HTML5 and stop supporting Flash for mobile and digital home devices makes it look as if Apple, and others that took the applications approach were right in the end.  Adobe's tone is certainly one of surrender: "HTML5 is now universally supported on major mobile devices, in some cases exclusively".

However, Adobe's money is made on tools and software - not browser plug-ins. As HTML5 emerged as an alternative, the company has already been slowly creating tools for developing HTML5-based content. Far from unifying a fragmented market, Adobe's decision is more likely to reinforce the creation of native applications for each platform.

For the connected TV market, it might make sense for Flash-orphan developers to move to Android, Apple or Microsoft as the alternative. Flash's demise can also benefit the Hybrid Broadcast Broadband TV (HbbTV) standard, since it can run as an application in these environments or on a proprietary connected TV or a set-top-box stack.

HbbTV is aiming to create an interoperable platform, and is working on allowing adaptive streaming and DRM. Its increasing popularity among TV set manufacturers and platforms in Europe can also help harmonise the fragmented market for connected TVs and set-top-boxes, with the exception of the UK-based YouView project and GoogleTV.

For the tablet and mobile market, it is probable that the development of Flash-based applications on Android OS devices will now tail off. This is not exactly good news for Google and Android, which have capitalised on Flash support as an advantage over Apple devices. The most likely preferred alternative - developing applications especially for Android devices - will make for more attractive and effective Android applications, but might also delay the publication of content on the Android ecosystem. 

The fragmentation of video standards demands consolidation: it is currently difficult and expensive for content providers to reach different audiences with various devices and to develop and maintain services across multiple platforms. A higher degree of interoperability is bound to happen, either through a standard such as HTML, or through the consolidation of video platforms.  Place your bets now.