It started with steel and washing machines, then moved on to cars and Chinese electronics. But what if the next wave of US protectionism – major new announcements expected tomorrow – targets culture? Specifically, what if Trump 2.0 were to slap a 20% import tariff on all non-American TV shows and movies sold to streamers in the US?

Let’s set aside the legality for a moment – whether it could survive a WTO challenge, or whether “content” counts as a service or a good (the lines are blurrier than you think according to this article from the world’s biggest law firm, Denton’s). Instead, let’s play it out. What would a blanket tariff like that actually do? Who would it hurt, who might benefit, and would it achieve anything apart from sparking a soft-power culture war?

Here’s a breakdown of the likely consequences.

#1. Streamers Would Get Squeezed

A 20% tariff on international content would instantly inflate costs for every American platform buying shows from abroad. Netflix’s famously global catalogue? More expensive. Amazon’s co-productions with the BBC or Channel 4? Pricier. Apple TV+? Shows and movies set to be made at UK studios like Pinewood – all up for renegotiation.

Platforms might then have three options:

• Absorb the cost (unlikely, given current margin pressures)
• Pass it on to subscribers (risky)
• Cut back on the number of foreign shows they license (the most probable)

In practice, we’d likely see a chilling effect on the volume and diversity of international content reaching US screens. Not a blackout, but a slow retreat.

#2. The Rise of the Loophole

Streaming is already infamous for its fuzzy accounting, co-productions, and tax-optimised financing. A tariff would add another incentive: to structure more international projects so they qualify as “Made in the USA.”

Think post-production houses in LA, re-domiciling IP in Delaware, or adding an American exec producer in name only. Expect a flurry of legal creativity as studios work out how to keep cross-border storytelling flowing without triggering the tariff.

#3. BritBox and Friends Would Take a Hit

Now let’s talk about the international platforms themselves. BritBox International – now wholly owned by BBC Studios – has made impressive inroads into the US market. But a tariff would push up the cost of every show it imports. Same for niche players focused on Korean, Indian, or European content.

They face a brutal choice: hike prices and risk churn, or eat the cost and shrink their margins to near zero. In a saturated market where US consumers already juggle multiple subscriptions, the margin for error is slim.

#4. International Creators Would Be Collateral Damage

This might be the most damaging consequence. A tariff would make US buyers think twice about acquiring international shows. That would ripple back through the value chain to affect writers, directors, actors, and producers abroad.

Smaller markets – those without a strong domestic SVOD ecosystem – would suffer most. For many creatives outside the US, the holy grail is a Netflix or Amazon deal. A tariff would put that dream further out of reach, especially for creators not backed by major studios.

#5. Cultural Diplomacy Takes a Hit

The irony is that international content has been one of the best American exports in recent years – not because of what the US makes, but because of what it showcases. Netflix has helped Americans fall in love with Spanish thrillers, Korean dramas, and Nordic noir.

A tariff wouldn’t just be an economic measure. It would be a cultural one too. It would signal that American audiences need protecting from foreign ideas, languages, and perspectives. And it would hand ammunition to other governments who’d love to justify their own digital protectionism.

#6. Watch for Retaliation

No trade move happens in a vacuum. If the US penalises cultural imports, others may hit back. The EU, for example, might double down on its own quotas and levies. Canada and Australia, always sensitive about American dominance in their media ecosystems, could follow suit.

That could lead to a fragmented global market – more regional platforms, more walled gardens, fewer shared hits. The exact opposite of where the streaming world has been heading.

#7. Consumers Would Lose Out

In the end, the biggest losers would be US viewers. The golden age of global TV has made it normal to binge shows from Berlin, Tel Aviv or Buenos Aires. Tariffs would mean fewer options, higher prices, and a narrower lens through which to see the world.

Of course, some viewers won’t notice or care. But for those who value storytelling from beyond their borders, it would be a needless step backwards.

So What Could Actually Happen?

Would a tariff bring jobs back to American sound stages? Probably not. Would it protect domestic creativity? Hard to say. Most likely, it would reduce competition and stifle innovation. The best ideas often come from exposure to different perspectives.

If Trump, or any future president, decides that culture is the next battleground for protectionism, they’ll be messing not just with trade flows but with how people see and understand the world. That’s not just short-sighted. It’s bad business.