When COVID hit in 2020, I remember speaking to a friend at a UK broadcaster just after the first national lockdown was announced. We’d had some warning this was coming — Italy had imposed similar restrictions a couple of weeks earlier — but the moment still landed with dizzying force. My friend described a sense of panic among her colleagues as they scrambled to figure out how to run a multi-channel PSB, and its streaming service, entirely from home.

The crisis wasn’t entirely unforeseeable, but the speed, scale, and disruption still caught us off guard. And that’s the essence of what we might call a “black swan”: a rare, high-impact event that upends assumptions and exposes fragilities in the system.

I was reminded of that conversation last week while listening to a radio interview about the knock-on effects of Trump-era tariffs. In response to market turmoil and global political tension, the Head of Nissan UK suggested that we were no longer facing a single black swan but a whole flock of them.

Could one or more black swans upend the OTT industry? What might those events be? And are there any ways to mitigate potential risks?

Here are my Top 10 potential OTT black swans.

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How to Judge a Black Swan

By definition, black swans are hard to predict. But we can apply a structured lens to assess plausibility by gauging potential shocks across seven criteria:

1. Precedent – Has anything like this happened before?
2. Early Signals – Are there hints or trendlines already visible?
3. Policy Climate – Are laws or debates pointing in this direction?
4. Economic Incentives – Who benefits financially if this happens?
5. Tech Maturity – Is the enabling technology ready or close?
6. System Fragility – Would the system amplify rather than absorb the shock?
7. Wildcards – Are unpredictable actors or forces in play?

Each potential black swan is scored across these dimensions, with a maximum of 21 points.

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#1. A Streaming Giant Collapses or Merges Unexpectedly

Score: 17/21
A significant number of streamers are in debt and / or seeking buyers. As subscriber growth slows and Wall Street demands profit, sudden consolidation or collapse is increasingly plausible and might reshape the OTT landscape overnight.

Potential Mitigations

Diversify revenue streams (licensing, FAST, B2B); build cross-platform content strategies; maintain flexible rights structures to switch partners if needed.

#2. A Major Content Ban or Cultural Backlash

Score: 17/21
India has banned TikTok and censored Netflix series before and, just this week, China has threatened to ban US-made movies in retaliation for tariffs. Whether it’s because of nationalist sentiment, economic factors or differences in morality, OTT players could face sweeping restrictions on “Western values”, sexual content, or political themes putting entire catalogues at risk.

Potential Mitigations

Localise content and operations; partner with regional creators; strengthen in-house cultural risk reviews; maintain alternative distribution channels (e.g. YouTube, mobile apps).

#3. AI-Generated Content Goes Mainstream

Score: 16/21
We’re nearing the point where AI can generate passable scripts, characters, voices, even whole scenes (the demo of Sora at our OTT Question Time Live 2025 conference was jaw-dropping in its sophistication). A low-budget, AI-produced hit could emerge from nowhere shifting power away from studios and toward tech-savvy creators. A paradigm shift in storytelling and production economics.

Potential Mitigations

Experiment with in-house with AI-assisted workflows; create IP that can be extended across formats; foster strong human-led editorial brands to differentiate.

#4. Consumer Sentiment Collapses

Score: 16/21
Rising prices, economic pressures, and streaming fatigue could lead to a mass wave of cancellations especially among younger or lower-income viewers. If piracy returns en masse, or viewers migrate to free alternatives like YouTube or TikTok, the DTC model could fracture.

Potential Mitigations

Offer tiered pricing (including ad-supported and freemium); invest in retention rather than acquisition; bundle with telcos, devices, or other services to increase stickiness.

#5. Deepfake Scandal Destroys Trust

Score: 15/21
Imagine a “leaked” OTT scene — of a celebrity or politician — goes viral, only to be revealed as a fake. The reputational fallout could be immense, forcing platforms to implement watermarking, delay releases, or face regulatory action.

Potential Mitigations

Adopt watermarking or authenticity layers for originals; strengthen comms and legal response plans; work with industry on standards for synthetic content.

#6. IP Rights Upended by the Courts

Score: 14/21
Legal chaos looms as courts grapple with AI-generated content: Can it be copyrighted? Who owns it? A landmark ruling could force streamers to rewrite deals, stall productions, or trigger a wave of lawsuits.

Potential Mitigations

Track legal developments closely; ensure clear authorship contracts; avoid full reliance on AI-generated content until IP clarity emerges.

#7. Regulatory Whiplash

Score: 14/21
From the EU’s Digital Services Act to local content quotas and levies (in the news again this morning), policy can shift fast — and globally. One new law in a major market could upend advertising rules, moderation policies, or licensing economics for everyone else.

Potential Mitigations

Invest in policy intelligence across key markets; develop compliance playbooks; maintain content/version control for jurisdiction-specific edits.

#8. A New Entrant Redefines the Model

Score: 14/21
What if TikTok launches longform serialised content? Or Apple debuts immersive, real-time dramas via Vision Pro? A radical new format could make traditional OTT look slow, static, and outdated overnight.

Potential Mitigations

Monitor early-stage startups and platforms; run innovation labs or fund creator experiments; avoid locking content in outdated formats.

#9. Creator/Talent Exodus from Streamers

Score: 13/21
Following the 2023 strikes, what if top-tier talent bypasses studios entirely — moving to platforms where they own the IP, can monetise directly, and build fan communities? This could hollow out streaming brands’ cultural relevance.

Potential Mitigations

Offer better profit-sharing or co-ownership of IP; empower creators with real-time performance data; position your platform as a creative partner, not just a distributor.

#10. Cloud Infrastructure Crisis

Score: 13/21
OTT platforms rely on AWS, Google Cloud, and a handful of CDNs. A major outage, cyberattack, or geopolitical event targeting this infrastructure could cripple operations and remind users just how fragile “always-on” streaming really is.

Potential Mitigations

Diversify cloud providers or add redundancy; stress-test disaster recovery plans; pre-prepare customer messaging for outages.

What This Means for Strategy

None of these are guaranteed to happen. But the OTT industry is uniquely exposed: highly centralised, deeply globalised, and entirely digital.

Rather than trying to predict which black swan will land first, we should perhaps:

• Build optionality – Have paths to pivot quickly if one market or model fails.
• Stress-test assumptions – What if your top 3 growth markets go dark?
• Watch early signals – Stay close to policy, tech, and cultural shifts.
• Diversify value – Beyond subscriptions and ads: what else do you own?

Thoughts?

DM me on LinkedIn.